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Food inflation data was released today and the food inflation covers wholesale prices of lentils, rice, vegetables and other food articles has increased to 17.94 percent in the week to Jan. 30 from a year earlier , it was at 17.56 percent previous week.
India’s food inflation data came out on Thursday and the food inflation index which is a measuring wholesale prices of lentils, rice, vegetables and other food articles increased 17.56 % in the week to Jan. 23 from a year earlier, and it was at 17.4 % gain the previous week.
Credit policy meeting outcome has come out and they have raised the CRR by 75 basis points , RBI has increased cash reserve ratio by 75 bps to 5.75 Percent , the hike would happen in two stages, the first stage of hike of 50 bps will be effective from February 13 and the next 25 bps from February 27. RBI has not touched the the reverse repo rate which is at 3.25 percent and repo rate which is at 4.75 percent.
Food inlfation which is of worry for us is at 17.40 Percent which was down for 3 consecutive weeks, While the Fuel inlfation was at 5.70 percent.While the annual Inflation was at 7.31 percent in December 2009, compared with 4.78 percent in November and 6.15 percent a year ago.
Infaltion data was released today and the inflation went higher up to 7.31 Per Cent .The WPI food articles inflation has inched lower to 17.2% from 18.2% a week ago.Kotak Securities has commented saying inflation might go to 9 Per Cent by March 2010.
Index of industrial production was relased and it again at 2 digit figure which is a good sign . The industrial output grew at 11.7 Percent in November 2009 which is way high compared to 2.53 percent growth in November 2008.
Annual rate of Inflation is provisionally calculated at 4.85 per cent for the week ending December 26th 2009 compared with 4.45 per cent last week and (-) 0.75 Percent during week ending Deember 27th 2008.Food inflation has come down slightly to 18.22 per cent for the week ended December 26 , Not sure how its calculated all the pulses and vegetables are high only compared to Previous week.Because food inflation ratewas at 19.85 per cent for the previous week and it was at 10 per cent during the same persiod in 2008.
The index of industrial production for the month of October 2009 was released and its at 10.3 percent , most of the analysers are not happy with this growth because they expected more on back of good GDP Number , but still 2 didigit growth is good and we can consider worst is over.September IIP revised to 9.6 percent versus 9.1 percent and April-October industrial growth was at 7.1 percent versus 4.3 percent (YoY). The Parth which raised the IIP is the manufacturing sector which performed well and the growth came in at 11.1 percent versus (-) 0.6 percent
Indian market which was expected to may be either crash or go down by some points , showed a positive mood after the GDP growth was released for india.India’s GDP (Gross domestic product) for the 2nd QTR grew at 7.9 percent compared with 6.1 percent in second quarter of 2008.
GDP Data
>Mining and quarrying at 9.5%,
>Manufacturing at 9.2%,
>Electricity, gas & water supply at 7.4%,
>Construction at 6.5%,
>Trade, hotels, transport and communication at 8.5%,
>Financing, insurance, real estate and business services at 7.7%,
>Community, social and personal services at 12.7%
>Agriculture, forestry & fishing’ is estimated at 0.9% .
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) which came out with quarterly monetary policy review today on october 27th 2009 , has decided to keep all the key rates like repo or reverse repo and the CRR steady and has hiked the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) to 25% from 24%.
What is SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio) : This is infact to protect us , RBI demands that there should be certain amount that Bank needs to keep in the form of cash or or gold or govt. approved securities (Bonds) and the ramining is only they have to give it to customers either as credit in any form , as loan or mortgage or something .This will really help RBI to control the expansion of Bank Credits.Now RBI has increased the rate by 1 percent , which means that the banks have to either invest in gold or government securities , this is something like repayment for the money that RBI let out to the banking system , This percentange comes to effect from from 7 November 2009.This means that the cash reserve in banks hand will go down by 1 percent or so .
Inflation data was released yesterday and the official Wholesale Price Index for ‘All Commodities’ (Base: 1993-94 = 100) for the week that ended on september 26th 2009 declined almost by 0.1 % to 243.0 from 243.3 for the previous week.
The Annual rate of inflation stood at .70 percent declining from .83 percent for the previous week ended 19 September 2009 and it was almost at 12.08 pecent during the week ended 27 September 2008.
Inflation data was released and the official Wholesale Price Index for ‘All Commodities’ (Base: 1993-94 = 100) for the week ended 29th August 2009 rose by 0.2% to 241.1 from 240.7 for the previous week. The annual rate of inflation stood at -0.12% during the week ended 29 August 2009. 52 week average inflation for the week ended 29 August 2009 stood at 3.99%.I heard sopme where that the Deflation will become inflation in 3 to 4 weeks , we will see if that happens.
Inflation data was release today and the wholesale price index (WPI) remained in the negative range for 7th or 8th week now it declined to 1.58 percent in the year through 25 July 2009 .
Inflation data was release today and for the fifth straight week the inflation is in negative(Deflation).The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point-to-point basis, is at -1.21 percent for the week ended 4 July 2009 as compared to -1.55 Percent for the previous week and 12.19 Percent during the corresponding week of the previous year.
Inflation for the first time in almost 80 years in negative zone , we know it has been moving around near or sub zero level and finally it has entered into negative zone for the first time since 1976-77.Inflation rate , calculated on point to point basis, stood at -1.61 % for the week ended 6 June 2009 as compared to 0.13 % for the previous week and 11.66 % during the corresponding week of the previous year 2008 same time.Negative inflation means not good for interest rate , it will have more burden on interest rates.
Industrial production for April 2009 has been released and its at 1.4 percent which is good sign because it has been in declining almost 3 times in past four months.
>IIP rose 1.4% in April from a revised 0.75% decline in March 2009.
>Industrial output rose 2.4% in the 2008/09 fiscal year (April-March), down from a revised 8.5% in 2007/08.
Components of IIP
>Manufacturing output rose 0.7%
>Mining output grew 3.8%
>Electricity generation for the month jumped 7.1% YOY
>Capital goods output fell 1.3% YOY
GDP numbers came out today and it came as a relief to the market , the Q4 March 2009 GDP is at 5.8 percent and considering previous QTR growth of 5.3 percent , its improving we have to say .But when you compare to year ago same time growth of 8.6 percent its too low.When it comes to the total year ending 2008-2009 the GDP is at 6.9 percent which is really low considering a 9 Percent and above growth year before.
Yesterday Dr Manmohan Singh took over as our twenty-first Prime Minister of India and today they have announces the Key Portfolios of UPA government .
Portfolio allocation:Cabinet Ministers Announced
>Shri Pranab Mukherjee : Minister of Finance
>Shri Sharad Pawar : Minister of Agriculture
Minister of Food & Civil Supplies
Minister of Consumer Affairs & Public Distribution
>Shri A. K. Antony : Minister of Defence
>Shri P. Chidambaram : Minister of Home Affairs
>Kum. Mamata Banerjee : Minister of Railways
>Shri S. M. Krishna : Minister of External Affairs
>Shri Ghulam Nabi Azad
>Shri Sushil Kumar Shinde
>Shri M. Veerappa Moily
>Shri S. Jaipal Reddy
>Shri Kamal Nath
>Shri Vayalar Ravi
>Smt. Meira Kumar
>Shri Murli Deora
>Shri Kapil Sibal
>Smt. Ambika Soni
>Shri B. K. Handique
>Shri Anand Sharma
>Shri C. P. Joshi
Inflation data came out yesterday for the week ending January 3rd 2009 , sorry for getting the new so
late .The inflation is found down at at 5.24% for week ending 3 January 2009 which is considered lower compared to previous week’s 5.91% rise.
First it was rate cut and now they have told they will almost spend 20000 crore in various packages that will help in boosting the industrial and economic growth which are else is slowing down because of global meltdown.These are the following packages they have come out with.
- Plan, non-plan expenditure of Rs.300,000 crore (Rs.3,000 billion/$60 billion) in four months
- Parliament nod to be sought for Rs.20,000 crore more toward plan expenditure
- Across-the-board cut of four percent in the ad valorem central value-added tax
- Interest subvention of two percent on export credit for labour intensive sectors
- Additional allocations for export incentive schemes
- Full refund of service tax paid by exporters to foreign agents
- Incentives for loans on housing for up to Rs.500,000, and up to Rs.2 million
- Limits under the credit guarantee scheme for small enterprises doubled
- Lock-in period for loans to small firms under credit guarantee scheme reduced
- India Infrastructure Finance Company allowed to raise Rs.100 billion through tax-free bonds
- Norms for government departments to replace vehicles relaxed
- Import duty on naphtha for use by the power sector is being reduced to zero
- Export duty on iron ore fines eliminated
- Export duty on lumps for steel industry reduced to five percent
No more thinking of using the R word , everyone will just use this single word from now on , Its official that US has gone into recession.National Bureau of Economic Research declared that America has gone into recession for some time now.When i say sometime its almost a year now from December 2007. Its they have to analyze the data and finally come out with the result and with the employment data they have Employers have trimmed payrolls by 1.2 million jobs in the first 10 months of this year.They are expecting another 350000 job loss for remaining year may be so finally 1.5 million jobs for this year alone.One good news is like when you compare the recession data before US is almost in the time to come out of it .We will see how many more month they need to come out of recession.The market already has responded to this.
Source: CNN
GDP for second quarter stood at 7.6 Percent Vs 9.3 Percent (Year over Year) and Vs 7.9 Percent (Quarter over Quarter).
Sector wise growth
Manufacturing output stood at 5 Percent (Year over Year),
Construction sector growth in Second QTR stood up 9.7 Percent (Year over Year),
Mining stood up 3.9 Percent Vs 5.5 Percent (Year over Year),
Farm output stood up at 2.7 Percent (Year over Year),
Services growth stood at 9.6 Percent Vs 10.5 Percent (Year over Year)
Industry growth stood at 6.1 Percent Vs 9.4 Percent (Year over Year).
Inflation data has come out morning itself which has stared to give atleast some 50 point releif to the market , the infation for the week ending november 8th stands at 8.9 compared to 8.98 week over week.I saw Mr Rao , wno is from Yes bank started predicting that the inflation will come down to 4.85 percent almost by next year 1st QTr , they are the same analyst who said that next year starting it would see single digit inflation which came like 2 months before itself .So nothing is for sure , We are just not yet into recession which almopst every country is seeing .
What made the Inflation to come down
WPI for commodities down by 0.2% WOW
Fuel group: down 0.9% WoW.
Light and diesel prices: down 11% WoW.
Furnace oil prices: down 9% WoW.
Aviation fuel prices: down 5% WoW.
Atlest for the last one the aviation fuel price which has gone down heavily will play some factor in getting the inflation down , so we can expect the inflation to go doqwn more in coming weeks.This is like good time if they start reducing the oil prices vegetables price might go down and other transportation charges will be less , thus it will help the inflation to go down more.
Industrial production data came out today and its kind of improving compare to previous month data but really less compared to previous year data.The IIP was at 4.8 percent from a revised 1.4% growth in August 2008 , So Cumulative figure from April-September 2008 period was 4.9 percent which is almost 4.6 percent less compared to 9.5 percent, during the corresponding period last year.
Inflation is unchanged at 12.14% for the week ended September 13 , analyst was expecting to raise to 12.23 percent .
July 2008 industrial production info was released today and it was good news atleast on that side , July IIP stood at 7.1 Percent compared to 5.4 Percent in June.
>Capital Goods is up 21.9 Percent compared to 12.3 Percent (Year over Year).
>Consumer Goods is up 7.3 Percent compared to 7.1 Percent (Year over Year).
>Consumer Durables Growth is up 11.2 Percent compared to -2.7 Percent (Year over Year).
>Manufacturing Growth stood at 7.5 Percent compared to 8.8 Percent (Year over Year).
>Mining Growth stood at 5 Percent compared to 3.2 Percent (Year over Year).
Inflation data came out today for week ending august 30th and its less than the one that came previous week , its at 12.10 percent as compared to 12.34% . Inflation for week-ended July 5 revised to 12.19 percent from 11.91 percent.
Inflation data came out yesterday sorry to report it this late its standing at 12.34 percent for week ending August 23rd 2008 , I’m sure its set to raise more , it cant just go down because i don’t see any of the price going down when it comes to food , anyway we will how it is next week.
Finally after a long time not sure when it went down but this week its good news it dint go up but it just came down by .20 percent or so .The inflation for the week ending August 16 2008 is at 12.40 percent versus 12.63 percent.
Inflation for week ending Aug 9 2008 came yesterday and there is no improvement at all it is at 12.63% compared to 12.44% week ago aug 9th 2008.
What had raise the inflation
30 Essential Commodities up at 6.74% VS 6.54%
Primary Articles up at 11.83% VS 11.43%
Fuel & Power unchanged at 17.99%
Manufactured~products up at 10.91% VS 10.75%
318 commodities unchanged and 15 commodities down
June industrial growth figure came out today and it stands at 5.4% versus 8.9% (YoY) versus 4.1% in May so when compared to may this year it was increase of 1 percent or so . While infrastructure output number stands at 3.4% versus 5.2% (YoY).
Sector Growth Figure
Capital goods growth has come out at 5.6 percent (YoY).
Manufacturing growth is at 5.9 percent versus 9.7 percent (YoY).
Consumer goods growth is at 10 percent
while mining growth is at 2.9 percent (YoY).
Electricity growth is at 2.6 percent (YoY).
Inflation for the week ending july 26th has come to 12.01 percent for the past 4 or 3 weeks inflation was sticking below 12 and finally it has passed 12 percent , i just saw someone was looking for inflation data sorry this is late for the day .
Inflation is at 11.98 percent compared to 11.89 percent , hmm thik its just playing games here going up and down i just .80 to .99 of 11 percent may be its 12.00 and they dont want to give that figure as it has not toucvhed that yet this year , but everyone expected it more than 12.
Sensex might dip today first half as the global cue is weak and oil has gone up by a dollar a barrel and also the important RBI monitary policy is scheduled today at noon , so any information from that meeting might increase or decrease the points in sensex.Market is expecting that RBI may further hike short-term interest rates or the repo rate ,cash reserve ratio (CRR). RBI had increased short-term lending rates for banks and CRR by 0.5% each on 24 June 2008 which you would have seen in my earlier post , think they would use this option again to inflation which doesnt seem to go down from 11 percent.
Inflation figures came in on thursday and the figures are almost the same as previous week may be when they adjust the figures after 1 month or so you can see the difference , Inflation for the week ending July 12 is at 11.89 percent versus 11.91 percent.
Inflation figures came out yesterday which together with the industrial growth rate dragged the market down by more than 450 points ,Inflation touched 11.89 per cent for the ending June 28, up from 11.63 per cent for the previous week. High prices of fruits and vegetables, pulses and edible oils might have increased the inflation for this week.
Inflation data which was one of the important factor that was driving the market for almost 2 to 3 months dint matter much for the market today may its because it was not a huge increase compared to previous week, India’s wholesale price index rose 11.63 percent in the 12 months to 21 June 2008, above the previous week’s of 11.42 percent.
What is Repo Rate ?
It is the rate at which banks borrow from the RBI , “repo” means repurchase agreement, and the “repo rate” is the current interest rate for secured overnight or very short term secured financing involving the sale and repurchase of securities.
RBI came out with the news that its going to raise the repo rate by 50 basis point and also the CRR by 50 basis points yesterday after the market hours , this is one of the many key factors that will help in controlling the inflation and other economic data that is worrying the indian economy.This CRR hike will take effect in two stages. First, a 25 basis point hike on 5 July 2008, and another 25 basis point hike on 19 July 2008. By 19 July 2008, CRR will stand at 8.75%. This would almost suck 16000 crores from the banking system if the full 50 basis point is implemented .
So Repo Rate stands at 8.5 percent
CRR Rate stands at 8.75 percent
Inflation was the data that market was waiting for today anything below 10 would have cheered up the market as it was expected around 10 , but the percent that thwy have released for week ending 7 June 2008 was 11.05 percent. The reading was the highest in 13 years since 6 May 1995, when it was 11.11%.I was expecting the inflation would be almost the same because the petrol price hike was done on june 5th thought the inflation data would be day ening june 5th but it was 2 days after the petrol price hike which would have increased all the food material price .
India’s wholesale price index rose 8.75 per cent in the 12 months to May 31, above the previous week’s annual rise of 8.24 per cent, government data showed on Friday.this is all before the raise of oil prices , you can see it reach 9.00 and 9.50 soon.
Industrial output rebounded strongly to 7% in April 2008 year-on-year from the previous month’s provisional 3% rise.The capital goods sector grew 14.2% in April 2008 as against 10.9% growth in April 2007.Dont even compare Industrial output with the value that was there in April 2007 , then market will really fall again , Ok there is this inflation data that is coming in today .
Crude oil which is almost writing stories in every countries Economy saw a big spike today in NYNEX which they say is one of the first and it surged more than 10 dollars a barrel touching a record of USD 139.12 a barrel during trading. I dont understand the reason they are saying for the crude price or true atleast for one they are saying US employment rates is getting high , if thats the case why would they spend much on oil and drive around .Morgan Stanley has predicted the oil price would reach even 150 dollar in a month or so ,think we have to stop trading equity and buy oil bonds or something .
Inflation data came out on friday which stood at 8.24% Vs 8.10% for week ended May 24. This is all before even the Oil price raise kicks in to the food prices , already im hearing that the vegetable prices have started raising so in 2 weeks time we can see the Inflation reaching 9 percent or so , again our finance minister Mr P. Chidambaram is saying that he is doing all things to have the inflation down , But not sure what is is doing to get it down , we will see how things are going from here .
Finally the government came out with the decision of oil price hike as most of the oil companies where going on loss , they not only did hike it but also have cut the excise duty also on oil.
Price Hike
Petrol prices up by Rs 5,
Diesel up by Rs 3 and
LPG price up by Rs 50 per cylinder.
Duty Cuts
Duty cuts are bringing a loss of revenue of about Rs 22,660 crore for the remaining 10-month period for this financial year ending march 2009.
>Customs duty on crude will be made nil from 5%.
>Customs duty on HSD and petrol will be reduced from 7.5% to 2.5%.
>Customs duty on other petroleum products will be reduced from 10% to 5%.
>Finally, excise duty on HSD and petrol will be reduced by Re 1 per litre each. So, Re 1 on petrol and Re 1 on diesel
GDP growth came out yesterday and it really saved from damages that was caused by inflation , the Q4FY08 GDP stood at 8.8% Vs 9.7% (YoY). Q4 farm sector growth stood at 2.9% Vs 4.9% (YoY), construction growth stood at 12.6% Vs 12.2% (YoY) and manufacturing growth stood at 5.8% Vs 12.8% (YoY).FY08 GDP growth is been revised to 9% from 8.7% earlier. FY08 farm sector growth stood at 4.5% Vs 3.8% (YoY). Q3FY08 (Oct-Dec) GDP has been revised to 8.8% from 8.4% earlier
Every qtr they come out with GDP figure which will really tell how the country is doing , For example every day you do you daily income and spendings atleast on the income side you just calculate it at the end , you finally see hiw much you have spent and how much you have saved every month and if the saving gets increased then you will feel like you are growing same way but too complicated logic is involved when it comes to finishing out how a country is doing on the growth side,
What is GDP or Gross domestic product
The gross domestic product (GDP) is one the primary indicators used to gauge the health of a country’s economy. It represents the total money value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period – you can think of it as the size of the economy. Usually, GDP is expressed as a comparison to the previous quarter or year. For example, if the year-to-year GDP is up 3%, this is thought to mean that the economy has grown by 3% over the last year.
